Perhaps it is time for Europe to speak to Putin, given that by failing to win this war, he is losing it, and that the entire continent – including Russia – would be well advised to ensure that he does not launch a flight forward.
Talking to him would make it possible to point out that he can still extricate himself from this situation without losing face, given that, firstly, Ukraine is not going to join NATO because the United States would oppose it and the Atlantic Alliance is in a state of decline; secondly, Ukraine can manage without European troops on its soil as it is set to join the European Union, which will thus guarantee its protection; and thirdly, Russia can agree to a ceasefire along the current front line whilst continuing to claim that the whole of the Donbas belongs to it.
Both Russia and Ukraine could sign a ceasefire just as lasting as the one between the two Koreas, whilst maintaining, for appearances’ sake, that part of their territory is occupied by force. This would be all the more feasible because Vladimir Putin would have everything to gain by cutting his losses and declaring victory, and because, whatever gains it makes, Ukraine too needs to stop losing lives and to rebuild.
This is why Volodymyr Zelensky is urging Europe to help him open direct talks with the Kremlin, and why several of the 27 EU member states believe it is high time to do so before Donald Trump attempts once again to negotiate a deal with Vladimir Putin at the expense of Ukraine and the EU.
Their arguments are sound and well-founded, but many other Europeans point out that the Russian president still seems to believe he can seize the whole of the Donbas through military force or diplomacy, and that he remains convinced that Europeans will always prefer to bow down rather than risk war. By seeking to open talks with the Kremlin at this stage, they believe, the EU would risk reinforcing Vladimir Putin’s belief that it is more or less prepared to abandon Ukraine, just as Donald Trump had sought to do. First and foremost, it is said, particularly in Paris, London and Berlin, that we must help the Ukrainians to step up their demonstrations of force, thereby giving the Russian leadership – and, above all, its leader – something to think about, and only then propose working towards a compromise.
For the time being, it is this second line of thinking that prevails. Donald Trump himself did not object to this when he agreed, at the G7 summit, to sell the Ukrainians licences to manufacture American weapons, enabling them to stand up to the Russians and protect themselves from their strikes.
Europe’s military and financial support has enabled the Ukrainians to establish a balance of power that has prompted a shift in the White House’s stance. The EU has established itself as a key player on the international political stage, and anyone who still believes that Europe no longer exists needs to get their facts straight.
Like the Americans, the Russians will have to come to terms with this new reality. Indeed, they will have to do so even more quickly and thoroughly, as Russia is no longer facing the United States but Europe and its united front. With the European Union and the United Kingdom on one side, and the Russian Federation on the other, it is no longer the two Cold War blocs that stand face to face, nor is it the West against Russia, but two Europes: democratic Europe and the one that still struggles to break free from dictatorship.
More than a war, it is a political battle being waged in Ukraine. Oligarchy faces democracy there, and even before considering whether or not to speak to Vladimir Putin, the European democracies should therefore address the Russian people directly. Without further delay, we must tell them that we must build together a continent of peace and prosperity, and that only their president is keeping us – them and us – from doing so.
Photo : Pixabay
